Clinical Validation of a Novel Scoring System Based on Donor and Recipient Risk Factors for Predicting Outcomes in Liver Transplantation

Lucas Souto Nacif; Daniel Reis Waisberg; Leonardo Yuri Zanini; Rafael Soares Pinheiro; Vinicius Rocha-Santos; Rubens Arantes Macedo; Liliana Ducatti; Luciana Haddad; Rodrigo Bronze de Martino; Flávio Galvão; Wellington Andraus; Luiz Carneiro-D‘Albuquerque

doi:10.12659/AOT.936271

30 August 2022 : Original article

Clinical Validation of a Novel Scoring System Based on Donor and Recipient Risk Factors for Predicting Outcomes in Liver Transplantation

Lucas Souto Nacif^1ABCDEF*, Daniel Reis Waisberg^1CDE, Leonardo Yuri Zanini^1BCDEF, Rafael Soares Pinheiro^1ACD, Vinicius Rocha-Santos^1ACD, Rubens Arantes Macedo^1BD, Liliana Ducatti

^1BD, Luciana Haddad^1BD, Rodrigo Bronze de Martino^1ACDE, Flávio Galvão^1AD, Wellington Andraus^1ACD, Luiz Carneiro-D‘Albuquerque^1AD

DOI: 10.12659/AOT.936271

Ann Transplant 2022; 27:e936271

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Table 2 Log-rank test of all scores variables (30% bank randomly selected).

		n	Events	Mean	SD	IC (95%)	p-value
Donor age	<60	249	66	2753	113	(2739–2767)	0.435
	60–65	16	5	2610	454	(2388–2832)
	65–70	12	4	2477	532	(2176–2778)
	≥70	3	2	1285	1041	(107–2463)
Steatosis ≥30%	No	185	45	3065	136	(3045–3085)	0.141
Steatosis ≥30%	Yes	61	20	2619	269	(2551–2687)	0.141
Nora ≥1 mcg/kg/min	No	255	70	2980	124	(2965–2995)	0.545
Nora ≥1 mcg/kg/min	Yes	10	2	3366	531	(3037–3695)	0.545
Cardiopulmonary arrest >2 minutes	No	234	72	2941	141	(2923–2959)	0.002
Cardiopulmonary arrest >2 minutes	Yes	41	3	4055	186	(3998–4112)	0.002
pH ≥7.20	No	236	65	3233	145	(3215–3251)	0.966
pH ≥7.20	Yes	37	10	3325	346	(3214–3436)	0.966
≥7 days ICU	No	195	44	3498	147	(3477–3519)	0.006
≥7 days ICU	Yes	81	32	2670	262	(2613–2727)	0.006
Recipient’s age	<60	198	55	2865	135	(2846–2884)	0.878
	60–65	45	11	3048	262	(2971–3125)
	65–70	30	9	2530	417	(2381–2679)
	≥70	7	2	2780	754	(2221–3339)
Retransplant	No	259	77	2500	102	(2488–2512)	0.196
Retransplant	Yes	21	0	3570	0	(3570–3570)	0.196
Fulminant	No	257	65	2942	116	(2928–2956)	0.004
Fulminant	Yes	23	12	1842	431	(1666–2018)	0.004
Portal trunk thrombosis	No	226	60	2717	118	(2702–2732)	0.990
Portal trunk thrombosis	Yes	35	9	2689	316	(2584–2794)	0.990
Large surgery/biliary tree surgery	No	220	57	3105	136	(3087–3123)	0.695
Large surgery/biliary tree surgery	Yes	45	13	3021	301	(2933–3109)	0.695
Cardiac risk >moderate	No	95	15	1947	92.5	(1928–1966)	0.216
Cardiac risk >moderate	Yes	6	2	1099	634.4	(591–1607)	0.216
MELD	<24	165	27	3135	120	(3117–3153)	<0.001
	24–29	35	12	2480	313	(2378–2582)
	29–35	36	12	2534	299	(2436–2632)
	>35	42	24	1535	296	(1445–1625)
Cause of donor death	CVAh	132	34	2644	144	(2619–2669)	0.102
	CVAi	17	7	2037	442	(1827–2247)
	TCE	99	29	2489	176	(2454–2524)
	Anoxia	20	2	3232	264	(3116–3348)
	Brain tumor	4	3	927	779	(164–1690)
	Others	7	1	3108	479	(2753–3463)
Creatinine before transplant >1.5 mg/dL	No	216	44	3177	119	(3161–3193)	<0.001
Creatinine before transplant >1.5 mg/dL	Yes	63	33	1812	262	(1747–1877)	<0.001
SD – standard deviation; IC – confidence index. ICU – Intensive Care Unit; MELD – model of end stage liver disease.

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Clinical Validation of a Novel Scoring System Based on Donor and Recipient Risk Factors for Predicting Outcomes in Liver Transplantation

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