16 January 2024>: Original Paper
Immediate Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Heart and Kidney Transplantation and the Recovery Trends in 30 Developed and Less-Developed Countries
Mohammad Islam 1CDE , Bryson Edwards 2BDFG , Jeffrey Goddard 2BDG , Ruhul H. Kuddus 2ACDEFG*DOI: 10.12659/AOT.942188
Ann Transplant 2024; 29:e942188
Table 7 The real change in heart, living donor kidney (LDK), deceased donor kidney (DDK), and combined kidney transplantation in the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. The observed numbers of transplants per million population (O), and the expected number of transplants per million population (E), as predicted by the artificial neural network model based on the data from 2015 to 2019 for the years 2020, 2021, and 2022 are shown. The recovery or decline in percentage (ie, ((O-E)/E)×100) is shown in parentheses.
Organ | Country group | Actual cases per million population | Predicted cases per million population | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ||
Heart | High-GDP | 6.59 | 5.75 | 6.07 | 4.96 (33%) | 5.06 (14%) | 5.2 (17%) |
Mid-GDP | 4.33 | 3.42 | 4.13 | 5.28 (−18%) | 5.17 (−34%) | 5.07 (−19%) | |
Low-GDP | 1.82 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 2.67 (−32%) | 2.74 (−32%) | 2.81 (−33%) | |
DDK | High-GDP | 34.42 | 34.21 | 35.45 | 31.69 (9%) | 32.32 (6%) | 32.95 (8%) |
Mid-GDP | 20.28 | 22.09 | 22.45 | 21.43 (−5%) | 20.98 (5%) | 20.54 (9%) | |
Low-GDP | 10.61 | 12.72 | 13.50 | 19.51 (−46%) | 19.85 (−36%) | 20.19 (−33%) | |
LDK | High-GDP | 12.13 | 12.54 | 11.63 | 12.45 (−3%) | 12.21 (3%) | 11.99 (−3%) |
Mid-GDP | 10.24 | 11.33 | 11.02 | 12.84 (−20%) | 12.95 (−13%) | 13.05 (−16%) | |
Low-GDP | 4.73 | 6.91 | 8.33 | 8.87 (−47%) | 8.81 (−22%) | 8.76 (−5%) | |
DDK+LDK | High-GDP | 47.95 | 46.75 | 47.08 | 54.11 (−11%) | 54.9 (−15%) | 55.69 (−15%) |
Mid-GDP | 29.70 | 33.42 | 33.46 | 32.33 (−8%) | 31.65 (6%) | 30.96 (8%) | |
Low-GDP | 15.28 | 19.62 | 21.83 | 25.58 (−40%) | 25.83 (−24%) | 26.08 (−16%) |